Wednesday 24 August 2016

Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

Fact File:

Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT): Created to address the issue of malicious race of nuclear arms.
Initiated by Frank Aiken (Foreign Affairs Minister, Ireland) in 1958
Theory (Central Bargain): The NPT non-nuclear states (states that did not possess nuclear weapons before 1968) agree never to acquire nuclear weapons and NPT nuclear states (states that possessed nuclear weapons before 1968) in exchange agree to share the benefits of peaceful nuclear technology.
NPT was open for signature in 1968. 190 countries signed. 
Recognizes 5 nuclear states: USA, UK, USSR (Russia after breakdown of the Soviet Union), France and China.
Four UN member states never joined NPT: India, Pakistan, Israel, South Sudan. North Korea accepted the treaty in 1985 but withdrew later in 2003.

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Source:     Link
By S.M. Azhar,
After the end of World War II, the world got involved into an armed race of producing nuclear weapons. To slow this malicious race, many arm control treaties such as SALT-1, SALT-2, LTBT, START-1 and START-2 were proposed and signed by several nations across the globe. Among such treaties was Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) - arguably most pivotal, global, and influential among them.
 
The NPT was launched in 1958 by Frank Aiken, the then External affairs minister of Ireland. At the time the NPT was proposed there was a prediction that within next two decades the world would have 25-30 nuclear weapon states. The NPT is based on a central bargain “The NPT non-nuclear states (states that did not possess nuclear weapons before 1968) agree never to acquire nuclear weapons and NPT nuclear states (states that possessed nuclear weapons before 1968) in exchange agree to share the benefits of peaceful nuclear technology. The NPT consists of a Preamble and eleven articles.
 
The NPT was opened for signature in 1968 and enforced in 1970. So far 190 countries have joined the treaty, Finland was the first country to sign. The NPT recognises five Nuclear Weapon states: USA, UK, USSR (Russia after breakdown of the Soviet Union), France and China. Four UN member states never joined NPT: India, Pakistan, Israel, South Sudan. North Korea accepted the treaty in 1985 but withdrew later in 2003.
 
India’s stand on NPT
India is among the very few countries who have never signed the Nuclear Non- Proliferation pact. India maintains its position that it can join the NPT as a nuclear non-weapon state citing that “externally prescribed norms or standards” cannot be accepted on the issues that are contrary to its national interests or infringe on its sovereignty. India’s stand is based on the argument that the NPT is the last vestige of the apartheid in the international system, granting as it does to five countries the right to be nuclear-weapons states while denying the same right to others. If nuclear weapons are evil — and India agrees that they are — then no one should have them. What is the moral, ethical, or legal basis for suggesting that some can and others cannot? What virtue do the “official” nuclear powers possess that democratic India lacks?
 
India also remains a strong proponent of universal nuclear disarmament. India’s approach is based on the belief that non-proliferation cannot be an end in itself; rather, it must be linked to nuclear disarmament in a mutually reinforcing process. India expresses its disappointment with limited progress on nuclear disarmament, where five authorised nuclear weapon states still have 22,000 warheads in their combined stockpile and have showed reluctance to disarm further. India argues that the UN has failed to comply with Article VI as they could not make disarmament a drilling force in national planning and policy with respect to Nuclear weapons. India believes effective disarmament must enhance the security of all states, not, as the NPT ensures, merely that of a few.
 
India further strengthens its stance by showing serious concerns over its security issues due to border disputes with one of the five nuclear weapon states China and nuclear power Pakistan. India has already fought 5 wars with its neighbours, 4 with Pakistan and 1 with China. India argues that China, which went to war with India in 1962, has nuclear weapons pointed at it, making it impossible to sign a treaty that would disarm India unilaterally.
 
India realizes that in the foreseeable future, nuclear weapons will remain active tools of international diplomacy and may well decide the contours of power politics just as the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review underlines the salience of nuclear weapons in the contemporary world.In this scenario, India would very much like to hold onto its nuclear weapons. The recent civilian nuclear agreement between India and the USA, also called ‘the Indo-US nuclear deal’, has accepted India as a country with advanced nuclear technology - a tacit acceptance of its weapon capabilities. It has provided India with a special status of being the only country outside the NPT which has been allowed to commerce in sensitive nuclear technology and material. Article III of the NPT prohibits nuclear trade with non-NPT states. This exception is further strengthened by the IAEA-India Safeguards agreement. The agreement allows India to have both civilian and military nuclear programmes. Under the NPT only the Nuclear Weapon States - states whose possession of nuclear weapons is accepted under Article I of the NPT- have this privilege.
 
Conclusion

The chances of India joining the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state are bleak. However, no one will want to see the treaty undermined by accommodating India as a nuclear Weapon state. The only viable option which serves the interest of both India and the NPT is to maintain the “status quo.”

Other Source:

India’s role in curbing proliferation and strengthening the non-proliferation regime is generally seen to have been minimal because it remains outside the NPT. But this perception is not entirely valid: despite being outside the NPT, New Delhi has honored the central commitments and principles enshrined in the treaty, which is, first, not to transfer potential nuclear weapon technologies to countries that do not have them and second, to work assiduously towards nuclear disarmament.

Given India’s track record as a responsible nuclear power and the fact that it is a rising power with advanced technologies, it should be in the interests of the global nuclear community to bring India into the nuclear tent. Similarly, India should be seeking to join the regime and drive transformations that are comprehensive and in its national interests.

CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor)














  • Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled his country’s biggest overseas investment — the ambitious 3,000 km—long China—Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
  • Once the economic corridor is fully developed and Gwadar Port is fully modernised, China is hoping to reduce its dependency on the longer Malacca Straits (between Malaysia and Indonesia) route for its humungous energy need.
  • It will shorten the route for China’s energy imports from the Middle East by about 12,000 kms.
  • The CPEC will link China’s underdeveloped far—western region to Pakistan’s Gwadar deep—sea port on the Arabian Sea via PoK through a massive and complex network of roads, railways, business zones, energy schemes and pipelines.
  • The corridor — expected to be ready in three years and provide about 10,400 MWs of electricity — gives China direct access to the Indian Ocean and beyond.
  • From Kashgar, in China to Gwadar in Pakistan.
  • There is alarm in India too about the increasing Chinese presence in PoK but Beijing has, as usual, brushed aside India’s concerns and gone ahead with the project to connect Gwadar with Kashgar.
  • Formal inauguration of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) done.
  • By committing to pour billions of dollars into infrastructure development over the years, China appears to have stolen a march over the U.S. and emerged as Pakistan’s unrivalled external partner.
  • Calling for India adjusting itself to an emerging multipolar world.

Piracy in Gulf of Eden and China

Pirates have stepped up attacks on merchant vessels in the Gulf of Aden, increasing insurance costs for ship owners and raising the specter of military intervention in one of the world's most important sea lanes. The waterway lies between Yemen and Somalia, and connects the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean. It is an important energy corridor. The surge in piracy has suddenly turned it into one of the most dangerous passages in the world for sea captains. 


China doing anti piracy patrols in Gulf of Eden may be a threat to India.


Reforms in Chinese Army (PLA)

Current Chinese military strength: 

Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will be cut by 300,000 (3 lakh) personnel from its 2.3 m (23 lakh) strong military force.

Rapid modernizing of PLA (People's Liberation Army). 

News: 

Chinese Army spotted along LoC in Pak-occupied Kashmir (13th March, 2016) - Indian Express

After frequent incursions in Ladakh area, Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops have been spotted at forward posts along the Line of Control (LoC) on the Pakistani side of Kashmir, ringing alarm bells in the security grid.

China revamps military command structure (3rd Feb, 2016): The Hindu

Sovereignty threats
Due to strong nationalism among Chinese people, Mr. Xi and his party will become entirely unpopular if they fail to take Taiwan by force if Taiwan pursues independence,” says blogging website Tiananmen’s Tremendous Achievements.

<<Credits: VISION>> 

India Defense Spending: 40 Billion Dollars
China Defense Spending:  130 Billion Dollars

Reasons behind the reforms:
  • China is involved in multiple territorial disputes with other Asian countries. This means that it is at least theoretically possible that China’s military might one day face two enemies simultaneously, possibly in the East China Sea and the South China Sea. But China’s Navy is not yet mature enough to fight two wars  simultaneously.
  • There is still the lingering problem of corruption. Before these reforms were announced, the PLA’s Discipline Commission was relatively weak, unable to bring in its own members for justice. Now the Commission directly reports to Xi, which should, in theory, greatly enhance the Party’s ability to fight corruption nationwide.
Implications for India:
  • With merging of military commands on the eastern and western part of India, the Chinese forces will now have better command and control all along the LAC. It indicates that China will continue to apply sustained pressure and maintain an 'offensive' posture towards India.
  • India needs to carefully watch the ongoing military reforms in China. They are certain to lead to increase in capabilities of the PLA, especially the Navy which has now been assigned with an expanded role – i.e. carrying out the task of ‘open seas protection’.
  • It should recognize that tensions in the contentious South China Sea and East China Sea are certain to rise, which may have negative implications of its Act East policy.
  • China’s move to have a base in Djibouti threatens India’s role as security provider in Indian Ocean Region. Andaman and Nicobar Command (ANC), which could have counter-balanced China's naval forays into the IOR, has largely failed to live up to its initial promise of a robust theatre command due to turf  wars among the three Services.
  • India has really not gone in for major military reforms till now to inject the much-required synergy among the Army, Navy and IAF, reduce their poor teeth-to-tail combat ratio and better utilise scarce resources to systematically build military capabilities in a cost-effective holistic manner.

BIMSTEC and India

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is an international organisation involving a group of countries in South Asia and South East Asia.

Members: Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Nepal (from South Asia), Thailand and Myanmar (from South East Asia)  (7)

The main objective of BIMSTEC is technological and economical cooperation among south Asian and south east Asian countries along the coast of the bay of Bengal .

  • Headquarter: Dhaka
  • Chairmanship: Nepal (Since 2014)
  • Established: 6 June 1997.
News (Business Standard- March, 2016)

The Union Cabinet chaired by the Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi has given its approval for signing and ratification of the Bay of Bengal Initiative on Multi Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Convention on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters. The Ministry of Home Affairs has been designated as the Central Authority under Article 15 of the Convention. The BIMSTEC comprises of seven countries viz., Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. 

The establishment of regional arrangements for mutual assistance in criminal matters will greatly contribute to more effective cooperation in the control of criminal activities. The Convention aims to extend widest measures of assistance to each other through mutual cooperation for enhancing capability and effectiveness of the Member States in investigation and prosecution of crimes, including crimes related to terrorism, transnational organized crime, drug trafficking, money laundering and cyber-crimes. After signing as well as ratification of the Convention from the Indian side, the Instrument of Ratification will be deposited to the Secretary-General of. BIMSTEC and the Convention shall enter into force on 30th day of the deposit of last instrument of ratification.

INDRA : India and Russia Joint Naval exercise

INDRA is a joint, bi-annual military exercise conducted by India and Russia starting in 2003. The exercise is tasked with boosting cooperation and interoperability between the Russian and Indian navies. The word INDRA is a portmanteau of the participants' respective countries.











2015 News: (Source Indian Express)

On Monday, the naval portion of India and Russia’s Indra exercise began in the city of Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh. The exercise will run from December 7 to December 12 and include two phases, a harbor phase and an a sea phase. India and Russia have been engaging in bilateral naval exercises since 2003 and this is the eighth edition of the Indra exercises.

In November, 250 Russian soldiers traveled to Bikaner, Rajasthan, where they joined their Indian counterparts for the land part of the Indra 2015. Those exercises focused on joint peacekeeping and counterterror operations in desert climes.
India-Pacific Islands cooperation (FIPIC)


Forum for India-Pacific Islands cooperation (FIPIC) is a multinational grouping developed in 2014 for cooperation between India and 14 Pacific Islands nations- which include Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Niue, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. <not necessary to mug up all countries>

















All Head of state/head of government of the above countries met in Suva, Fiji in November 2014 for the first time where the annual summit was conceptualised.

Significance of the FIPIC for India :

1) It will help India to harness resources if pacific islands for agricultural, fishery, oil and natural gas, mining, information technology, and will help in the growth of healthcare centres.
2) It would help to cater to the needs of the Indian diaspora living in the Pacific islands.
3) It will help to address the issues of climate change and use of renewable energy like solar energy, weather forecasting, use of science and technology
4) The pacific islands can also support India to gain the permanent seat in the united nation security council.
5) It will boost trade and commerce.
6) It is most important relationship if India under the Act East Policy and will help to fulfill India growing demand of marine resources.

Although FIPIC is geopolitically significant for India but there are some obstacles to this----
Firstly pacific islands are also strategically important for China and with the help of Maritime Silk road China would also want to keep strong ties with these resource rich islands which can put constraints and affect the ties of these islands with India.
Secondly the Pacific islands may look forward to USA for a strategic partnership to boost their economies as well as geopolitical interests which can act as a hurdle for India's interest in these islands.

Nevertheless, India will have an upper hand in these islands which will protect India's interest by fostering support and cooperation which will be fruitful in the long run of India's foreign policy.

United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and India

UNSC:
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is one of the six principal organs of the United Nations and is charged with the maintenance of international peace and security.
Its powers include the establishment of peacekeeping operations, the establishment of international sanctions, and the authorization of military action through Security Council resolutions; it is the only UN body with the authority to issue binding resolutions to member states.

Why was it created?
Like the UN as a whole, the Security Council was created following World War II to address the failings of another international organization, the League of Nations, in maintaining world peace.

Members:
  • The Security Council consists of fifteen members. Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, and the United States—serve as the body‘s five permanent members. 
  • The Security Council also has 10 non-permanent members, elected on a regional basis to serve two-year terms. The body’s presidency rotates monthly among its members.
India and UNSC

  • India was among the founding members of United Nations.
  • It is the second largest and one of the largest constant contributor of troops to United Nations Peacekeeping missions.
  • It has been a member of UNSC for 7 terms and a member of G-77 and G-4, so permanent membership is a logical extension

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and its implications

What is TPP?: Agreement between 12 countries of Asia Pacific rim:

  1. Australia
  2. Brunei
  3. Canada
  4. Chile
  5. Japan
  6. Mexico
  7. Malaysia
  8. New Zealand
  9. Peru
  10. Singapore
  11. USA
  12. Vietnam














The Trans-Pacific Partnership pact reached recently between the United States and 11 Pacific Rim nations including Canada and Japan, has raised both hopes and concerns.
What is Trans-Pacific Partnership pact?
It is a trade pact that is intended to cut trade barriers and establish common standards for 12 countries.
What it does?
  • New terms for trade and business investment among the United States and 11 other Pacific Rim nations.
  • It would phase out thousands of import tariffs as well as other barriers to international trade.
  • It also would establish uniform rules on corporations’ intellectual property, open the Internet even in communist Vietnam and crack down on wildlife trafficking and environmental abuses.
Its significance:
  • This is the largest trade pact in 20 years.
  • The agreement covers 40% of the world’s economy.
  • It is seen as a means to address a number of important issues that have become necessary as global trade has soared, including e-commerce, financial services and cross-border Internet communications.
What its supporters say?
  • The pact would boost growth in the U.S. as well as the Asian economies.
  • It would be a boon for all the nations involved.
  • It would unlock opportunities and address vital 21st-century issues within the global economy.
What its opponents say?
  • Critics in the US say it would only help American companies send jobs abroad. Some people call it a “trade disaster”.
  • Critics in other countries say it would benefit large corporations, particularly American big pharma, with the common people at the receiving end.
  • Some people say it would reduce access to generic medicines in developing countries.
  • Internet freedom campaigners see it as a big threat.
Why is the US interested in this deal?
  • It is seen as a way to bind Pacific trading partners closer to the United States while raising a challenge to Asia’s rising power, China.
  • Traditionally, the U.S. has tried to isolate its enemies and integrate allies with its own worldview. With China it couldn’t do either.
  • China is now the world’s second largest economy, which has invested trillions of dollars in U.S. treasury bonds. Hence, isolating such an economy is next to impossible.
  • Now, with China emerging as an economic powerhouse with new institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in place, the U.S. is trying to form a grand alliance that would shore up its influence in Asia.
Economists such as Joseph Stiglitz have pointed out that the TPP would hardly meet either its declared commercial goals or its undeclared strategic ambitions, and could turn counterproductive.
Credits: Insights, Wiki

ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations)

The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a political and economic organization of ten Southeast Asian countries. It was formed on 8 August 1967.

Members (10)
  1. Myanmar (Burma)
  2. Laos
  3. Cambodia
  4. Vietnam
  5. Indonesia
  6. Philippines
  7. Singapore
  8. Thailand
  9. Brunei
  10. Malaysia
















Objective:

Accelerating economic growth,
                   social progress,
                   sociocultural evolution
                   protection of regional stability
                   providing a mechanism for member countries to resolve differences peacefully.

ASEAN shares land borders with IndiaChinaBangladeshEast Timor, and Papua New Guinea, and maritime borders with IndiaChina, and Australia.

Why in News?
  • 13th ASEAN Summit in Kualalumpur (Capital of Malaysia)
  • Narendra Modi Attended
<<Optional Reading material>>

Narendra Modi said-   "Going further, I want to assure you that India is committed to protect Intellectual Property Rights of all innovators." (the Hindu)

"Our major ports witnessed 4.65% growth in traffic and 11.2% increase in operating income in 14-15 despite a global contraction in trade," Mr. Modi said.
Mr. Modi stated "We have begun institutional and structural reforms - in agriculture, housing, transport, financial inclusion, investment."

Article 2: the Hindu

Brushing aside dispute over the South China Sea, China on Friday called for the fuller economic integration with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), steered by the Nanning - Singapore Economic Corridor


ASEAN to transform into a community:
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was proclaimed a community through a declaration signed by the ASEAN leaders at its 27th Summit here on Sunday. The leaders stated that this was a historic development and an important milestone in the evolution of the 10-member grouping since its founding in 1967.
Simultaneously, the leaders endorsed “ASEAN 2025: Forging Ahead Together,” which charts the path for community building over the next 10 years. The forward-looking road map articulates the ASEAN goals and aspirations to realise “consolidation, integration and stronger cohesiveness as a community.”
Both the declarations were endorsed by the ASEAN leaders in the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, among others.

At ASEAN, Modi brings up South China Sea issue (21st Nov 2015)
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had made a passing reference to the disputes in the South China Sea in his address at the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN)-India Summit held in Kuala Lumpur on Saturday.
"India hopes that all parties to the disputes in the South China Sea will abide by the guidelines on the implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and redouble efforts for early adoption of a Code of Conduct on the basis of consensus," the Prime Minister said.

Mr. Modi also emphasised the need for evolving specific plans of cooperation in maritime security, counter-piracy and humanitarian and disaster relief.

Trade ties top Modi’s agenda at Asean meet (21st Nov, 2015)
It is really going to be an Act East policy: Wadhwa

In a recent series of Facebook posts, the Prime Minister said that his scheduled visits to Malaysia and Singapore were “aimed at making our economic ties with these nations stronger and to also strengthen the security cooperation between us”.  The Asean today is India’s fourth largest trading partner. India, in turn, is the sixth largest partner for Asean.

The Asean today is India’s fourth largest trading partner. India, in turn, is the sixth largest partner for Asean. 

The Asean-India strategic partnership was stated to have acquired further momentum after the enunciation of the “Act East Policy” by Mr. Modi at the 12th Asean-India Summit in November 2014. “Our trade and investment flows are substantially growing. Yet, we want to further scale up our trade and economic ties,” Mr. Modi stated. At the Asean-India Summit, leaders are expected to take note of the new Plan of Action (2016-2020) to further cooperation along the politico-security, economic and socio-cultural pillars.

The India Story, in word & deed (24th Nov, 2015)

On his visit to Kuala Lumpur to attend the ASEAN-India summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in familiar form, pitching India as an investment destination to the East Asian countries.
He also offered specific opportunities to ASEAN countries on investing in infrastructure in India, particularly in Metro Rail systems, housing, road, rail and waterways. 

India, ASEAN can be ‘great partners’: Modi (12th Nov, 2014)
As India seeks to deepen its engagement with the 10-nation bloc of small and medium economies, Modi said both India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are keen to enhance their cooperation in advancing balance, peace and stability in the region.
“The ASEAN community is India’s neighbour. We have ancient relations of trade, religion, culture, art and traditions. We have enriched each other through our interaction. This constitutes a strong foundation of a modern relationship,” Modi said in his opening statement in Hindi at the 12th India—ASEAN summit in the Myanmarese capital.